market.get_probabilities

Calculate market-implied probabilities and probability distributions.

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Overview

The market.get_probabilities tool extracts probability information from market prices, orderbook data, and trading activity. Useful for analyzing market sentiment and identifying mispriced markets.

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Parameters

Parameter	Type	Required	Description
market_id	string	Yes	Platform-specific market identifier
platform	string	Yes	"polymarket" or "kalshi"
method	string	No	Calculation method: "mid", "volume_weighted", "time_weighted" (default: mid)
timeframe	string	No	Historical timeframe: "1h", "24h", "7d" (default: current)

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Request Example

result = agent.run("""
  Calculate probability for presidential election market
  using volume-weighted method over last 24 hours
""")

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Response Format

{
  "market_id": "0x1a2b3c...",
  "platform": "polymarket",
  "current_probability": 0.47,
  "calculation_method": "mid_price",
  "orderbook_snapshot": {
    "best_bid": 0.46,
    "best_ask": 0.48,
    "mid_price": 0.47,
    "spread": 0.02,
    "spread_percent": 4.26
  },
  "volume_weighted_probability": {
    "24h": 0.465,
    "7d": 0.458,
    "30d": 0.442
  },
  "probability_history": [
    {"timestamp": "2026-03-19T00:00:00Z", "probability": 0.45},
    {"timestamp": "2026-03-19T12:00:00Z", "probability": 0.47}
  ],
  "confidence_metrics": {
    "liquidity_score": 0.92,
    "volume_score": 0.88,
    "stability_score": 0.75
  }
}

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Related Tools

• market.get_data - Detailed market data

• market.search - Find markets